One Billion Hectares of Tropical Forest Paid to Stay Standing: A Fifth Goes to Those Who Were Never Paid

A quick clarification before we begin: the figures mentioned here refer to announced funding targets, not amounts already disbursed in full. Please keep this nuance in mind as you read.

For years, the fight against deforestation relied on a simple on-paper principle, but flawed in practice: paying for each tonne of carbon avoided from being emitted. This system eventually showed its limits, to the point that some researchers now describe it as a true misguided idea. A new financial mechanism is entering the international climate scene, with an unprecedented ambition: no longer paying for emissions that did not occur, but for the very presence of forests. Named the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, this fund aims to mobilize 125 billion dollars to protect more than one billion hectares of tropical forest. And above all, it promises a rare novelty in this type of mechanism: allocating a significant portion of the money directly to indigenous peoples, those same communities that previous systems often sidelined.

Why carbon credits have burned out

The principle of carbon credits seemed enticing: a company funds the preservation of a forest somewhere on the planet, and in exchange, it offsets a portion of its own emissions. Yet a 2025 study by Oxford and Penn researchers, led by Dr. Joseph Romm, came to challenge this notion. According to their findings, this mechanism would constitute a truly dangerous distraction from what really matters, namely reducing emissions at the source rather than trying to offset them elsewhere.

The problems don’t end there. Carbon credits have also been accused of a phenomenon called green land grabbing, a form of land grabbing under the banner of environmental protection. Concretely, some carbon offset projects would have resulted in the displacement of indigenous communities living on these forest lands, a paradox for a system meant to protect nature and, indirectly, those who depend on it most.

A model that pays for standing forest, not for the avoided carbon

Facing these limits, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility proposes a fairly radical shift in logic. Rather than accounting for tonnes of hypothetically avoided carbon, the fund directly pays tropical countries for every hectare of forest actually conserved. A nuance that changes everything: you no longer pay for what did not happen; you pay for what exists, here and now.

The mechanism targets 74 UN-listed countries, collectively home to over one billion hectares of tropical forest, roughly 3.8 million square miles. The idea is twofold: on one hand, to encourage countries that deforest little to maintain this effort over time; on the other, to push nations where deforestation remains significant to improve their land management to become eligible for funding. An incentive system that relies on the carrot rather than the stick, in a context where tropical forests represent a major climate asset, while concealing, according to some estimates, up to 1.2 trillion dollars in unrealized pharmaceutical value.

Indigenous peoples finally at the top of the beneficiary list

This is perhaps the most striking aspect of the new mechanism. While previous climate schemes have often left local communities on the margins, or even penalized them, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility plans that 20% of the payments go directly to indigenous peoples and local communities engaged in conserving their forests. If kept, this commitment would make the fund the largest source of international funding ever dedicated to these populations.

This shift is not trivial. Indigenous communities are often the first guardians of these ecosystems, living in daily contact with the forest and its biodiversity. Giving them finally a direct share of the financing, rather than treating them as acceptable collateral damage, marks a change in philosophy that could redefine how we think about forest conservation on a global scale.

125 billion target, a handful of countries in the portfolio

Funding remains a major question, and it is substantial. The stated objective is to raise 25 billion dollars from governments, a sum that should then serve as a lever to attract 100 billion dollars in additional private investments. In total, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility hopes to mobilize 125 billion dollars.

So far, the tally is not yet there. Only a few countries have opened their wallets: Brazil, Indonesia, France, Germany, Norway, and more recently the United Kingdom, which confirmed a 400-million-pound pledge. A promising start, but current public funding remains well short of the initial target of 25 billion dollars. According to Edward Davey of the World Resources Institute Europe, the health of major tropical forests, whether in the Amazon, the Congo Basin, or Southeast Asia, is intimately linked to the frequency and intensity of disasters suffered by the populations. A timely reminder of the weight these ecosystems bear—often unknowingly—on the planet’s climate balance.

By betting on living forests rather than calculations of avoided emissions, and by placing indigenous peoples at the heart of the mechanism rather than at its periphery, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility sketches an alternative way of thinking about climate finance. It remains to be seen whether the 125 billion dollars targeted will actually find buyers, and whether this promise of financial justice for those who have safeguarded the forest for generations will withstand the test of time and budgets.