A few years ago, an American geologist launched a project aimed at mapping the Earth over the last billion years and making projections based on the movement of tectonic plates. This expert is behind a notable hypothesis: the Ultimate Pangaea.
A new supercontinent on the horizon
The Pangæa is most often portrayed as the starting point of today’s continents, following their breakup and drift. However, Pangæa itself emerged from a complex alternating sequence of breakup and reassembly, driven by the motions of the tectonic plates. It cannot be ruled out that a new supercontinent could form in the distant future.
Renowned geologist and paleogeographer Christopher Scotese proposed the concept of the “Pangea Ultima” in 1982. This refers to a new supercontinent that could exist in roughly 250 million years (see below). A very detailed scenario was developed within the PALEOMAP project, described in a 2018 presentation (English PDF / 35 pages).
The Atlantic Ocean would be doomed to disappear, as the Americas push toward Africa and Eurasia. The Indian Ocean would, in turn, transform into an inland sea. Taking into account the positions of today’s nations, global geopolitics would undergo a massive upheaval. For instance, the Korean Peninsula would be squeezed between China and Japan, Greenland would be attached to Canada, and Cuba would merge with the United States, among other changes.
New geopolitics and extreme conditions
Within this Ultimate Pangaea, France — if it still exists by then — would hold a pivotal strategic position. With the disappearance of the Mediterranean Sea, our country would move closer to North Africa while pushing north toward the Arctic. There would thus be shared borders with Spain, Italy, possibly Portugal, but also with Morocco, Algeria and perhaps Tunisia.
However, this upheaval would be accompanied by a volatile cocktail of extreme climatic conditions and, inevitably, a mass extinction of mammals. It would be dominated by intense volcanic activity, triggering a massive rise in atmospheric CO2. Consequently, most of the Ultimate Pangaea would experience temperatures above 40°C, in a context where solar luminosity would be about 2.5% higher than today. Owing to its much more northerly position than today, France would still be among the few landmasses where life would remain possible.
Finally, it should be noted that Christopher Scotese abandoned the designation “Pangea Ultima” several years ago. The expert preferred the notion of “Pangea Proxima” since, in theory, plate tectonics would continue to move after the formation of the new supercontinent. This would again trigger disintegration into multiple continents, followed by another reassembly.
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