While this may be an impossible scenario, a 50% reduction in the world’s population by the end of this century would certainly ease our planet. This demographic decline would be accompanied by a drop in pressure on natural resources, on pollution, and on conflicts surrounding the water resource in particular. However, not everything is as simple as it seems.
A Reduction in Pressure on Natural Resources
As CNN explained in 2022, some experts claim that the world population should peak at 10.4 billion people by 2080. After that, the number is expected to plateau or even fall, starting around 2100, although some projections anticipate such a decline before 2070. For billionaire Elon Musk, there will soon be talk of a population collapse due to a drop in birth rates, representing a risk far greater for civilization than global warming. For the experts, this view is narrow-minded since today only some countries see their populations decline. And if the population were to fall by 50% by 2100? Clearly impossible—unless a major global catastrophe occurs—that scenario allows us to somewhat visualize the possible benefits for the planet in the case of a sharp demographic decline.
Let us recall, however, that today more than two billion people — about 30% of the world population — do not have access to a home drinking water service. Vital, the water resource appears to be a fairly good indicator of the pressure of populations on natural resources. A growing population exerts more pressure on these resources, and a decline would imply less pressure, which seems logical.
Among countries under water stress (or shortage), the tensions around drinking water are a reality, mainly around lakes and rivers where sometimes enormous dams have been built. Very often, there is no question of an equitable sharing of this resource. Moreover, countries under water stress will become more numerous in the future due to climate warming.
A Chance for the Planet?
A population halved could however unleash major imbalances in our social and economic systems. Cities would shrink and rural areas would become deserted, signaling an collapse approaching the one imagined by Elon Musk. Another aspect concerns the aging of the population, which could have repercussions on innovations across many fields such as technology, medicine, etc.
Nevertheless, humanity could prepare and take advantage of this to rethink its socio-economic model. For instance, it could involve a return to more localized economies and a drastic reduction in global trade in goods. This would help reduce the overall carbon footprint and avoid environmental catastrophes, or at least lessen their impacts. It should be noted that with 50% fewer people on Earth, productivity would decline, as would forms of pollution and other phenomena such as deforestation and overfishing, among others.
Finally, it is quite difficult to determine whether such a population decrease would be a boon for the planet. Indeed, any radical change is accompanied by a deep reflection toward adapting to a new reality. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, the scenario in question lies outside any concrete projection and thus belongs to fiction. Moreover, any significant global population decline can only be gradual, which will give humans time to think about the future.
