Study ranks 17 catastrophic threats to global health, from nuclear war to pandemics

Two scenarios among the seventeen studied could, in theory, erase humanity from the map. An international commission has just compiled an inventory of the most serious health threats facing our species, with a deadline set for 2100. The study is published in The Lancet

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A 37‑expert panel sifted 17 scenarios capable of tipping humanity

We are living in a complicated era for the human species. Perhaps not the most difficult in its history—let future historians debate that—but between the deluge of information and the endless scroll of content, it is hard to distinguish real threats from the noise surrounding us.

That is precisely the task undertaken by an international commission bringing together 37 experts. Their mission: sieve through hundreds of potential dangers to global health, then isolate those that pose a catastrophic risk. The result is a list of 17 threats, described in terms of their nature, severity, and the avenues for addressing them.

Notably, the analysis casts its conclusions across a 75-year horizon, reaching out to 2100. A horizon that might seem distant, but that precisely shapes the commission’s approach. “Most of all, the 17 threats are interconnected, which is why they must be addressed together rather than in isolation,” summarized Professor Christopher JL Murray, co‑chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the medical journal The Lancet, which publishes the study, shares this sentiment. According to him, the work invites a broader perspective: moving from isolated problems to a landscape of threats that is much larger, demanding a level of coordination commensurate with its complexity.

Nuclear war and runaway AI: the two gateways to extinction

Among the 17 threats listed, two stand out clearly from the rest. The first is unsurprising: the risk of nuclear conflict. The second, more unexpected in this health context, concerns the risks associated with the malicious use of artificial intelligence. The experts do not regard these scenarios as highly probable, but they acknowledge that they could, in the worst case, lead to human extinction.

The nuclear threat is not new. Specialists in the field had already warned that the general public was no longer “scared enough” by this weapon—an impossibility only a few generations ago when the world lived under the constant shadow of the Cold War. Fear has faded, but the danger remains.

Artificial intelligence, for its part, embodies a distinctly modern problem. Experts are still debating whether this technology represents a true existential threat, and some hypotheses about the topic can be genuinely chilling. The impact of widespread AI adoption on the human psyche and on society at large remains an open question, far from settled.

To organize the assessment, the authors built a pyramid. At the apex sit these two extinction threats. Just beneath lie 15 other major threats, and even lower, 314 additional risks comprise what the commission calls the broader threat landscape.

2100 in sight: why these risks must be fought together rather than separately

Climate instability illustrates this logic of interconnectedness perfectly. Its effects on physical and mental health extend beyond deaths from extreme heat. Extreme weather disrupts blood supply, floodwaters carry deadly bacteria, and disease-carrying insects colonize new territories as temperatures change.

Air pollution, already responsible for tens of thousands of additional deaths each year, remains inseparable from climate change.

Human activities that intensify climate disruption, such as deforestation, also bring human populations into closer contact with wild animals. This contact facilitates the transmission of animal diseases to humans, with the risk of triggering a new pandemic. And where an infectious disease circulates, antimicrobial resistance advances: within 25 years, millions of lives could be at risk from bacteria and fungi that have become resistant to current treatments.

Taken together, these 17 threats could, collectively, generate tens of billions of disability-adjusted life years by 2100—a standard public health metric representing years of healthy life lost. But this figure is not fate; it only holds if nothing is done.

To avert this scenario, the commission proposes a three-pronged plan. First, strengthen capacities: bring world leaders together around preparedness and provide financial support to the most vulnerable communities. Next, back scientific progress—from vaccines to climate technologies—while ensuring equitable access. Finally, monitor these risks continuously, because you can only respond effectively to a threat if you can measure it.

The co‑chair of the commission, Dr. Natalia Kanem, sums up the challenge this way: “Recent global events show how quickly stability can flip into crisis, and how costly it is to react only after disaster.” According to her, these threats risk magnifying existing inequalities, hitting the most vulnerable communities first.

This list of 17 threats is not a fixed ranking. The situation will evolve, new data will emerge, and scientific breakthroughs will change the landscape. The year 2100 still lies far ahead. But as the authors remind us in the climate context, a risk deemed non-apocalyptic today could, over centuries, become an extinction threat if nothing changes. The future, insists Dr. Kanem, is not inevitable, provided we act now rather than later.

Source: New Lancet Commission provides roadmap to protect economies, security and global stability from catastrophic threats (healthdata.org)

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